MLB Record/Standings Prediction: AL East
As we gear up for the 2025 season which is just 8 days away, lets take a look at my record predictions for each team, and how each division will end up. There have been lots of early injuries, free agent signings, and emerging prospects that will impact teams in the upcoming season. This is how I see it ending up:
#1 - Boston Red Sox - 90-72
The Red Sox are absolutely going for it. After a lack-luster 81-81 record last season, this team is no doubt better than last year. Trading for Garrett Crochet was a huge move to start their offseason. Crochet looks like a solidified ace to start the year after only one season of being a full time starter, posting a 35% strikeout percentage and earning 4.1 bWAR in 2024. Boston also signed Alex Bregman to play either 3B or 2B, we don’t really know yet. Bregman’s style of hitting is going to fit in perfectly in Boston, as he pulls the ball for power very well. He will make great use of the Green Monster. Tanner Houck and Bryan Bello will be great pieces behind Crochet, and we know how good Rafael Devers and Jarren Duren can be in the middle of that lineup. The Red Sox look like the best all-around team in the AL East.
#2 - Baltimore Orioles - 88-74
The Orioles didn’t change up a whole lot from their roster in 2024. They lost key pieces like Corbin Burnes and Anthony Santander, but I still believe this team is in a good spot. The young core is still incredibly good, and have another year of experience under their belt. Gunnar Henderson is a superstar, posting an incredible 9.1 bWAR last year. Adley Rutschman, Colton Cowser, and Jackson Holliday are primed for productive seasons, and they still have a lot of talent in the farm system like Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo that could easily come up and make an impact. Their starting pitching is definitely lacking, but a great bullpen should make up for some of that slack, especially with closer Felix Bautista coming back from Tommy John. The O’s look solid going into 2025.
#3 - New York Yankees - 86-76
If you asked me 2 weeks ago what the Yankees record would be, I would have told you that they would have at least 90 wins. Nowadays, things are looking down for the Yanks. Obviously when you have Aaron Judge, you always have a chance to have a great team. But besides him, there are a ton of question marks on the offense. Giancarlo Stanton looks to be out for the year, Juan Soto is no longer there, and everyone else was average or below average last year. I believe Jazz Chisholm will be great, and I think Austin Wells could improve on a good rookie year, but they need a healthy season from Jasson Domiguez, a better offensive year from Anthony Volpe, and they are going to need top prospect Spencer Jones to come up and play well for them to have a chance at the playoffs. I like the addition of Bellinger, but newly acquired first baseman Paul Goldschmidt had a bad year in 2024, and he is only going to get older. Their rotation also looks rough due to unfortunate injuries to Gerrit Cole and 2024 AL Rookie of The Year Luis Gil, who won’t come back until after the All-Star as it looks right now. The bullpen is still elite with Devin Williams and Luke Weaver holding down the 8th and 9th innings, but they will need some help in the rotation and the lineup.
#4 - Toronto Blue Jays - 80-82
The Blue Jays are at an interesting spot with their roster. They were fairly aggressive in free agency, signing Anthony Santander and Jeff Hoffman, which are moves that I do like. Having Vladimir Gurrero Jr, Bo Bichette, and Anthony Santander in the middle of that lineup is very good, but it's the bats around them where it gets a little scary. Of the players still on the roster from the 2024 season, every player beside Guerrero and Bichette had an OPS right at or below .700, with Justin Turner and Spencer Horwitzer being traded or not resigning. They will need to get key production from the young guys for the offense to get to the next level. Their rotation is pretty solid, especially with the addition of Max Scherzer. I believe the trio of Bassit/Berrios/Gausman along with Scherzer will be productive. The bullpen is also a weak spot for me, Chad Green was solid last year, and Jeff Hoffman will be a great closer, but everyone leading up to that 9th inning hasn’t shown a whole lot of promise. I think the Jays could be a solid group if the offense can create a spark.
#5 - Tampa Bay Rays - 75-87
Unfortunately, Tampa Bay is at the end of their line of great prospects, which means that they have made trades that have negatively impacted their team. The Rays will always been sneaky good, as they are amazing with their prospect development, especially on the pitching side. But when Zack Littell is your leader in bWAR in 2024, there is some work to do. They have a good rotation with Pepiot/Littell/Bradley/Baz, I think that rotation can do some really good work. Their offense is where they are the weakest by far. Junior Caminero should have a great first full season, and Brandon Lowe is on a contract year, so as long as he stays healthy, he will provide some good power. Other than that, it gets rough. Yandy Diaz can always surprise us and be a great bat, but besides him, its not great. They are going to have to rely on Jonathan Aranda, Josh Lowe, and Jose Cabellero, which doesn’t make you happy as a Rays fan. Tampa Bay will have to get big production from Curtis Mead and Carson Williams when he gets brought up. And to add insult to injury, the Rays will be playing at the Yankees Spring Training field, Steinbrenner Stadium, after unfortunate hurricane damage to Tropicana Field. It is destined to be a weird season for the Rays.
NEXT UP: MLB Record/Standings Prediction: AL Central
